Fertilizer Updates
On a month-to-month basis, or more frequently, EP3 cover fertilizer with a particular concentrate on the Australian market. We have actually been doing this for rather a long time, and we do this separately. We are not moneyed in any method by the fertilizer market.
In these posts, we will usually cover the supply and cost for urea. In this post, I’ll cover the supply scenario in Australia.
Urea Supply
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. There have actually been issues throughout this season about the absence of offered urea, which our company believe holds true in particular locations.
In truth, the fertilizer trade has actually done a great task. In 2023, they have actually excelled themselves and imported record volumes of urea into Australia.
Let’s take a look at the numbers.
In the very first 8 months of 2023, over 2.5 mmt of urea was imported. Is this a lot or a little? Let’s put it into viewpoint and compare it to 2021 and 2023; the below demonstrates how a lot more we imported this year:
- 2021 = +316 kmt
- 2023 = +369 kmt
These were the 2 formerly record years for imports of urea, and we have actually smashed it. The very first chart listed below programs the cumulative imports of urea for these years and the five-year average.
One criticism we got is that this import information does not consider the lost domestic production. The 2nd chart takes this into account, and we still have a significantly greater offered supply.
I was anticipating that when the August numbers can be found in that, we would see a substantial crash; this hasn’t held true. The 3rd chart shows the seasonality of imports, and August was another big month.
I am not stating this holds true, however I was going over Australian imports with a market contact. They got onto the subject of shortage which it is a sales method as old as the hills.
This method means to develop a sense of seriousness amongst possible clients, pushing them to buy faster than they may otherwise. The viewed rarity or impending unavailability of the product can increase its viewed worth and desirability.
I am not stating that this holds true. All I am stating is that every year, we appear to hear the old ‘get in fast before we go out’.
All I can state is what the information details. On a nationwide level imports have actually been thumper.