The NFL playoffs’ divisional round schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with excellent matches, and we have actually got you covered with what you require to understand heading into the weekend. Our NFL Country press reporters bring us the most significant secrets to every video game and a strong forecast for each match.
Furthermore, ESPN Statistics & & Info offers a huge stat to understand and a wagering nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a video game forecast. Analytics author Seth Walder selects each match’s most significant X aspect, Matt Bowen recognizes an essential game-planning match to view in every video game, and Kevin Seifert informs us what to understand about the officiating. Lastly, Walder and Eric Moody provide us last rating choices for every single video game. Whatever you need to know is here in one area to assist you prepare yourself for a packed weekend of the NFL playoffs
Let’s enter into the complete divisional slate, consisting of a Patrick Mahomes– Josh Allen face-off, the Lions attempting to keep their playoff run going and the rising Texans and Packers going to the No. 1 seeds as huge underdogs.
Dive to a match:
HOU-BAL| GB-SF
TB-DET| KC-BUF
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET| ESPN/ABC/ESPN+| Spread: BAL -9.5 (43.5 )
What to look for: One discouraging postseason streak will pertain to an end. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 0-2 in the divisional round, tossing one goal pass and 3 interceptions. However the Texans are 0-4 in the divisional round, losing by approximately 14.5 points. — Jamison Hensley
Vibrant forecast: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will toss for over 300 lawns, ending up being the very first quarterback to attain that task versus the Ravens given that Tom Brady tossed for 325 lawns on Oct. 27, 2022 Stroud led the league in passing lawns per video game (273) and might have tossed for well over 300 in the wild-card video game versus the Browns’ No. 1-ranked defense when he tossed for 236 in the very first half. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to understand: The Ravens utilized play-action at the seventh-highest rate in the routine season (26%), and Jackson loved it, ranking in the leading 7 in the league in QBR, conclusion portion and lawns per effort. Nevertheless, the Texans were amongst the worst defenses protecting play-action– they ranked in the bottom 5 in QBR, conclusion portion and lawns per effort.
Match X aspect: The Texans’ offending line. All season the Ravens have actually utilized simulated pressure to interrupt their challenger’s defense to excellent success while still keeping numbers in protection. The Ravens taped 27 sacks with simulated pressure, more than any other group. Houston’s offending line requires to be prepared if it’s going to safeguard Stroud. — Walder
Game-plan secret: I wish to see Houston offending organizer Bobby Slowik get Stroud beyond the pocket on some boot principles to pull Baltimore protectors, with tight end Dalton Schultz working as the beneath target. That might be crucial to the Texans entering into a rhythm versus the truly great Ravens defense. Find Out More at ESPN+ — Bowen
Officiating note: In a year when NFL authorities tossed more flags for deliberate grounding (61) than in any season given that a minimum of 2000, it must be kept in mind that referee John Hussey’s regular-season team was the most aggressive with 7 such flags. And as it ends up, Jackson took 5 such charges, the majority of in the NFL. Stroud took one. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Ravens are 11-6 versus the spread (ATS) this season (unders are 9-8). The Texans are 10-8 ATS, consisting of the playoffs (unders are 11-7).
Moody’s choice: Ravens 37, Texans 24
Walder’s choice: Ravens 27, Texans 20
FPI forecast: BAL, 81.7% (by approximately 12.8 points)
Match must-reads: How the Texans’ draft night altered the franchise … Ravens include Prepare to lineup, waive Gordon … Stroud ‘unique’ as Texans get wild-card vengeance on Browns … Jackson gets in playoffs, showing ground vs. Texans
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET|Fox| Spread: SF -9.5 (50.5 )
What to look for: This is an NFL-record 10th playoff conference in between the Niners and the Packers, with San Francisco holding a 5-4 edge. What’s more, the Niners have actually won 6 straight NFC divisional-round championship game, the longest active streak in the NFL. The winner will either take or share the title of winningest group in postseason history. The Packers are connected with the Patriots at 37 and might move into top place alone with a win, while a 49ers success would connect them with Green Bay and New England. — Nick Wagoner
Vibrant forecast: Jayden Reed will be the Packers’ prominent receiver. How can a guy who didn’t capture a single pass the week before pull that off? Well, the Packers have not had the exact same leading receiver in regards to lawns in successive weeks given that Romeo Doubs in Weeks 3 and 4. Doubs blazed a trail once again recently versus the Cowboys, so maybe the 49ers will roll their protection his method. Reed set the franchise record for catches by a novice with 64. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to understand: The 49ers have actually won their previous 5 home championship game, the longest active streak in the NFL, with 2 of those wins coming versus the Packers (2012 divisional round and 2019 NFC National Championship). The 49ers have actually controlled those matches, with 4 of 5 wins visiting 14-plus points.
Match X aspect: Packers quarterback Jordan Love I selected him as the X aspect recently, and you understand what? He was the X aspect. Because Week 10 and into the playoffs, Love leads the NFL in QBR (78.4)– and it’s not even close. Dak Prescott is 2nd because period at 73.7. That level of quarterback play provides the Packers an opportunity versus anybody, the 49ers consisted of. — Walder
2:05
Dan Orlovsky’s recommendations for Jordan Love versus the 49ers
Dan Orlovsky signs up with “The Pat McAfee Program” to share his ideas on how Jordan Love can beat the 49ers.
Game-plan secret: San Francisco receiver Deebo Samuel balanced 8.8 lawns after the catch, leading all WRs. Coach Kyle Shanahan will plan open-field chances for him, which indicates the Packers will require to be on their taking on A-game. Green Bay needs to restrict Samuel’s numbers post-catch to pull the upset. Find Out More at ESPN+ — Bowen
Officiating note: Referee Alex Kemp’s regular-season team led the NFL with approximately 15.3 flags per video game. The Packers and 49ers both completed in the leading third of the NFL for the majority of flags this season, the 49ers with 125 and the Packers with 124. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Packers have actually won 4 straight video games outright as underdogs, their longest underdog win streak given that 2011-12.
Moody’s choice: 49ers 31, Packers 21
Walder’s choice: 49ers 30, Packers 23
FPI forecast: SF, 78.6% (by approximately 11.2 points)
Match must-reads: Post-Rodgers, LaFleur loves Love … Shanahan, LaFleur’s long NFL history … McCaffrey (calf) complete individual in 49ers practice … Purdy utilizes internal inspiration to preserve edge
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET|NBC| Spread: DET -6.5 (48.5 )
What to look for: Fresh off winning their very first championship game in 32 years, the Lions will host their very first NFC divisional round look given that the 1991 playoffs. These groups will clash for the 2nd time this season after Detroit won the regular-season match 20-6 at Tampa Bay. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield and Lions quarterback Jared Goff have both rejuvenated their professions in brand-new settings as previous No. 1 total choices and will want to bring their particular groups with their strong play. — Eric Woodyard
Vibrant forecast: The Bucs will hold the Lions under 20 points … and win. Tampa Bay will as soon as again be the underdog, Detroit’s going to be as hostile a setting as it gets and coach Todd Bowles hasn’t beaten Goff given that 2019, when Goff was with the Rams and Bowles was the Bucs’ protective organizer. However the defense discovered its footing recently in among Bowles’ best-called video games, and Mayfield’s physically doing a lot much better with those rib and ankle injuries. — Jenna Laine
Stat to understand: The Buccaneers’ defense has actually blitzed on 41% of dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL. They might want to call that up much more versus Goff, who has 7 turnovers when blitzed this season, connected for 2nd most in the NFL.
Match X aspect: Lions edge rush Aidan Hutchinson He is on a three-game multisack streak and is coming off a 33% pass rush win rate video game in the wild-card round (more than double his regular-season rate). The Lions’ pass defense is their weak point, however if Hutchinson starts, the Lions might retreat quickly. — Walder
Game-plan secret: Will we see Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and Buccaneers corner Carlton Davis III in individually guy protection matches? St. Brown had 124 lawns versus Tampa Bay in Week 6, so the Bucs require a strategy here– possibly with Davis in protection and security aid spinning down late. Find Out More at ESPN+ — Bowen
Injuries: Buccaneers| Lions
Officiating note: Referee Costs Vinovich’s regular-season team is generally among the stingiest in the NFL. In 2023, nevertheless, it balanced 13.4 flags per video game, connected for the seventh least in the NFL. When the Lions and Bucs fulfilled in the routine season, the groups integrated for 10 flags– 5 each. — Seifert
Betting nugget: Both groups are 12-6 ATS, which is connected for the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5 ATS). Unders are 12-6 in Buccaneers video games, while overs are 11-7 in Lions video games.
Moody’s choice: Lions 28, Buccaneers 21
Walder’s choice: Lions 34, Buccaneers 17
FPI forecast: DET, 62.5% (by approximately 4.5 points)
Match must-reads: Mayfield reacts to Lions DB’s barb … Goff leads Lions in vengeance win over Rams … Mayfield leads underdog Bucs to unexpected playoff win … Narrative history of the Lions’ last playoff win
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET|CBS| Spread: BUF -2.5 (45.5 )
What to look for: For the very first time in this competition in between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Chiefs are concerning Orchard Park for the postseason. The quarterbacks have actually fulfilled 6 times, with the Expenses winning 3 of the 4 regular-season conferences, and the Chiefs taking both postseason video games (2020 and 2021). The distinction for the Expenses in the routine and postseason matches is the protective success. In the routine season, the Expenses have actually held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per video game and produced 9 takeaways, however in the playoffs, Kansas City has actually balanced 40 points and had just one turnover. There will be a huge test ahead for a Costs defense handling a range of injuries. — Alaina Getzenberg
Vibrant forecast: Mahomes and Allen will integrate for a minimum of 6 TD passes. These 2 constantly placed on a program when they play, especially in the postseason. Mahomes and Allen integrated for 5 scoring passes in the AFC National Championship after the 2020 season and 7 in the divisional round the next season. The conditions will be less than perfect, however that hasn’t stopped them previously. — Adam Teicher
Stat to understand: One location that may distinguish the Expenses from the Chiefs might be winning the turnover fight. The Expenses required 30 turnovers this season, the 2nd most in the NFL (the Ravens and Giants required 31 each). The Chiefs required 17 turnovers, the 27th most in the NFL.
2:39
Why Stephen A. believes Josh Allen will outduel Patrick Mahomes
Stephen A. Smith makes his case for Josh Allen and the Expenses to leading Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC divisional round.
Match X aspect: The Expenses’ cornerback health. Taron Johnson (concussion), Rasul Douglas (knee) and Christian Benford (knee) are all banged up. While Buffalo appears like the much better group on paper, a diminished secondary versus Mahomes looks like an unsafe mix. — Walder
Game-plan secret: In the Week 14 match in between these groups, Expenses running back James Cook had 83 getting lawns. Search for the Expenses to get Prepare associated with the death video game once again with backfield releases and screens. And try to find Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton to be type in restricting those plays. Find Out More at ESPN+ — Bowen
Officiating note: Shawn Hochuli is among the NFL’s more active referees. Throughout the routine season, he tossed an NFL-high 14 flags for roughing the passer, 5 more than the next-closest referee. Because ending up being a referee in 2018, he has actually led the league with 61 such flags. That might show intriguing, as Allen has actually grown proficient at drawing roughing the passer fouls. He drew 6 in 2023, the most in the league. Mahomes drew just one. — Seifert
Betting nugget: Mahomes is 10-5 ATS in his playoff profession, consisting of 7-2 ATS when he is not a minimum of a seven-point favorite. Allen is 3-6 ATS in his playoff profession.
Moody’s choice: Expenses 31, Chiefs 27
Walder’s choice: Chiefs 32, Expenses 31
FPI forecast: BUF, 56.6% (by approximately 2.3 points)
Match must-reads: How Mahomes has actually browsed the worst season of his profession … Allen’s TD dash wows Expenses in wild-card win vs. Steelers … Mahomes get ready for Allen once again, compares to Brady-Manning